Posts in Marketing (20 found)
Playtank 2 weeks ago

The Systemic Pitch

The past few years prove that there is a market for premium systemic singleplayer games. Few have listened to us (developers) when we tried to pitch such games for the past decade. Or ever. This isn’t because there is some kind of conspiracy against systemic games. Not at all. Systemic designs are very hard to sell. Not just to publishers or to customers; systemic designs are hard to sell even to your own team. We get caught by our own excitement, or we try to sell technology or tools as if they are designs when they are really not. The fleeting nature of systemic design feels like losing control, or like a potentially bloated mess of optional sandbox content that we have to make for the simulation to be complete but that will add little for the average player. In this post, I try to address pitching systemic games, based on my own mistakes. There’s a wealth of literature on how to sell something. Including how to make a good sales pitch. For this post, we’ll stick to a very general high level idea of what pitching needs to achieve, and leave all of that expertise to the real experts. One great book you can take a look at is the book Pitch Anything, by Oren Klaff. For this post, let’s assume a pitch needs to do three things: The origins of AAA (or “triple-A”) is from credit ratings. It stands for a rating of low risk, high reward. Or, in the terms of investment banks, “exceptional creditworthiness with minimal risk of default.” It was used in early game development, including pitching, to signify projects that were safe bets with high financial potential. Today, AAA is used to describe anything from team size to budget size. Like many of the terms we use in game development, it’s become almost meaningless, or at least the interpretations have become too varied for consistent use. But these origins are relevant. When you pitch something, the value proposition still needs as small a risk as possible with as big of a potential reward as possible. Pitching is to ask for something. It may be funding to get your game across the finish line, developer buy-in to make the next feature, or something else. Be specific with what you are asking for and you will have a less frustrating conversation. When you pitch, you must offer something to the people you are pitching to. Money, ownership, future commitments. It’s not enough to offer them a potentially great game, you need to show how it’s more than the sum of its parts. Game development comes with many risks that you must address with your pitch. You don’t have to call them out and tell people what your solution will be, but you should consider them and hold yourself accountable for them. The systemic value proposition is extremely tricky. For many external stakeholders it’s not the same as the creative argument or the design paradigms . Many stakeholders want replayable content that’s cheap to make , and will read “systemic” as making content production easier or cheaper. Perhaps using procedural generation techniques to generate multiple levels from a small set of content, thereby not needing as many level designers or prop artists. This is not the same as systemic design at all. Systemic design is about letting go of authorial control and allowing players to have the fun. This almost invariably makes a systemic design sound more expensive to make, since it implies a high degree of freedom and a sandbox nature. If you detect excitement around systemic ideas, be really careful to note what is generating the excitement, or this could be the fundamental misunderstanding you’re experiencing. Anyone can have ideas but everyone can’t turn ideas into games. You must be able to prove why you should be the person making your thing. What to lead your credibility pitch with is tricky. For systemic games, it helps to demonstrate technical expertise immediately. To line up all the key roles that will address the risks you’ve already mentioned and explain how you’ve filled them. Studios may get a lot of attention after releasing games that sold many copies, attracted many concurrent players, or gained high scores in reviews and good media attention. Though this front row attention may be fleeting in the media, it will matter a lot for your credibility to be part of these journeys. People may even talk about the best place to be at a given time. If you’ve mostly worked as a salaried employee, your studio pedigree will be the most important thing you can offer to state your credibility. It also tends to be the first thing many will ask to know. If you worked at particularly big modern studios, you mention which roles you held and not just the name of the studio. This is because if your title was Junior Assistant to the Senior Assistant’s Assistant, your impact was probably quite small, and talking about this studio doesn’t actually provide much credibility. Simple maths. If you have fewer years of experience, you have probably learned less. But the keyword here is “relevant.” If you are pitching a big sprawling open world role-playing game after working on first-person shooters for 15 years, people may believe that you know how to make games, but may be weary that you haven’t made this type of game before. This will then become a risk that you must address. Something that’s almost a joke at this point is to sum up the experience of your team and use that in your pitch. E.g., “250 years of combined gamedev experience.” You can of course do this anyway, but it doesn’t really mean anything. The easiest and most quantifiable way to demonstrate that this isn’t your first rodeo (if it isn’t) is to list the box art for the games you shipped. If this is a very long list, you can stick to the ones that were important or are more likely to be known by the people you are pitching to. Similarly to studio experience, you may want to specify what you did on each game too, but only if it becomes too anonymous otherwise. You shouldn’t turn the credibility element of your pitch into a reason to talk about yourself at length. For an external stakeholder, technology that exists and has been proven through previous game releases is worth a lot more than experimental technology. For this reason, technology becomes part of your credibility. If you come to a pitch and you say you are working on your own engine that will probably be finished a couple of months ahead of release, this will send off warning flags for everyone in the room. But if you say that your team is working with an established third-party engine and you have a working prototype already in place, this will give a much better first impression. It helps to have a team already lined up and waiting for your go-signal. A team shortlist is a list of people who have agreed to let you put their name down for if you find the funds. It’s very rarely treated as a commitment, more a way to lend weight to a pitch. It’s better than saying you’ll start recruiting when you have your funding, but it’s not as good as having people already onboard. The packaging refers to how you communicate value and credibility. There’s no right or wrong way here, but it will matter a lot based on who you are talking to. According to the It Was a Sh!tshow podcast, Futurama spent two to three years in preparation before it was pitched to studios. During that time, they explored characters, key art, technology, and many other things. In game development, we rarely have this room for pitch or concept development. But you do need to prepare as much as you possibly can. You need to figure out the risks, foresee what potential stakeholders will be worried about, and proactively respond allay their concerns. Stories resonate with people. Introductions, reversals, and climaxes. Presenting your pitch as a story doesn’t mean you should lead with your game’s story, it means that your whole pitch should be a story with a proper beginning and end. Start with a bang, end with a call to action. There are some pitfalls you should avoid, however. Don’t ask open-ended rhetorical questions, e.g. “Have you ever thought about why dogs have two ears?!” Because chances are that they only confuse people and don’t actually make them think the way you want. Take charge of the story and walk through your pitch’s narrative beat by beat. Leave nothing to chance. If you want to frame your pitch as a story, use video and visual aids as much as possible and let the story come from you rather than the pitch deck. A strong metaphor can also carry a pitch. In an interview with Designer Notes, games venture capitalist Mitch Lasky talked about his EA pitch using a container to illustrate the benefits of standardisation. Metaphors can of course be traps as well, if they in fact illustrate something you don’t intend, but you’ll figure that out as you work through it. Use a strong metaphor if it fits your whole pitch and doesn’t leave strange questions. A sad fact is that no one wants novelty. Novelty almost always looks like a risk more than a gain. From Railroad Tycoon to The Sims , many of the most groundbreaking games through the years had few fans in management. Similarly, Markus Persson (“Notch”) said that no publisher would’ve cared about Minecraft if he had pitched it to them: it could only happen by selling it directly to players. You can absolutely lead with how your game is different and new, but be aware of this risk. Only focus on novelty if you can incorporate a strong why into your pitch. I have a whole post that laments the use of the word “content.” But it’s enough to say that it’s a word often equated with quantity and used by both developers and consumers. Developers will talk about how much content they offer, while consumers will usually ask for more of it no matter how much is on offer. Most systemic games are not built to funnel “content” to users. Churning out downloadable content (DLC) fits really poorly, and most of the time replayability is a matter of smoke and mirrors. Choosing A instead of B, or approaching through the secret door instead of the main entrance. Functionally, the very same content , but a different experience . Some systemic games manage to pull it off, like Prey and its excellent Mooncrash DLC, but at other times it ends up feeling artificial and a bit forced. Thief wouldn’t benefit from offering you a special gold-lined blackjack, for example. It would only risk diminishing the core experience. Therefore, if you want to offer a systemic game, don’t pitch your game on its quantity of content . People generally use harsher words than good or bad. What often gets lost is the reasons why we think something is good or bad. Particularly when good or bad is applied to specific parts of a game, such as its story or gameplay. If you didn’t like the gameplay, maybe this made you dislike the story. If you really loved the premise, then maybe you felt better about the gameplay than it actually deserved. This means that good or bad is mostly a loud declaration of opinion that muddles any real qualities or faults of the thing being touted. If you disagree with the zeitgeist effectively countless “masterpieces,” the gamer population is quick to call you an idiot. Publishers may not call you an idiot, but you should still avoid calling things good or bad. It may even be that the thing you’re trash-talking is something one of the people you’re pitching to happened to work on. Therefore, avoid value terms and comparisons to other games . There are many words for this. Janky, buggy, glitchy, broken, even unplayable. Some game companies have gained a reputation for their games feeling “janky,” while others may have segments that are more or less so. “Eurojank” is sometimes used as its own term. The issue with this language is that it’s also often applied to complex games. Having to use multiple mapped controls, or using menus in certain ways, will become conversationally equivalent to jank. No matter what you do, do not use these words to describe your own game unless it’s deeply intentional. If you are making the next Goat Simulator or Gang Beasts , then by all means call it janky. You can also acknowledge if your audience calls your concept janky, and run with it, but don’t introduce the term on your own. Don’t talk about your own game as janky, buggy, or messy . In the marketing buildup to the release of No Man’s Sky , if you followed games media to any extent, you would’ve seen Hello Games’ Sean Murray. He was the face and voice for the project and his infectious enthusiasm built a gigaton of hype. But he was also first and foremost a developer. Someone who was enthusiastic not just about what the game actually was but what it could be. A mentality that everyone in game development understands. If you talk about technology and its potential, be careful to not promise more than you can deliver . Maybe it’s because of the clickbait era and the tendency for a lot of people to only read the headlines and not the main points, using examples can actually be a problem. If you describe a general system you have and you then say that it’ll be used to generate something like a metal ball, it’ll then become the Metal Ball System and nothing else to some of the people listening to the pitch. It’s better to provide a framework for your systems and let the audience’s imagination put things together, or you can easily fall into the trap that you need to start defending your example or expand on what makes the example interesting. You don’t want to be put in that spot. Even worse, if you use examples from other games , they may infer different things for the audience than what you had in mind. Avoid using examples, or they may become people’s most concrete takeaways. Let’s get one thing perfectly clear: you can’t convert your own excitement into a signed contract . Excitement is important when you deliver your message, since we’re social beings, and it can definitely affect your believability and how compelling your message is. But in every other way, your excitement is strictly yours. No one cares about your deep lore, the motivations of your characters, the 1,000 years of world history you wrote for your fantasyland, or anything else of that sort, until after they have crossed what I call the excitement threshold . At that point, everyone won’t care, but a subset may suddenly care to the point of obsession. For every player that praises all the well-written logbooks and audio journals, there are nine others who completely ignore them. For every publisher rep you talk to who loves the cool technical solutions you’re talking about, there are nine others who have never seen Visual Studio and will simply not get what you are trying to make. For every complex systemic thing you added to your prototype, there will be someone at the other end of the table who asks why the shadows look wrong or why your prototype doesn’t look as visually polished as the one from some other pitch they just saw. All this and more is bound to happen, and you must learn to really read the room when it comes to which parts of the message to focus on. As an example of the excitement threshold, take a look at the original trailer for the movie Raiders of the Lost Ark . Note how this trailer focuses, not on the Indiana Jones we know today, but on the mystery of the Ark of the Covenant and its terrifying implications in the 1930s. Lost artifacts, Egyptian ruins, and nazis: as pulp as it gets. Compare this to a modern trailer for the same movie . A trailer that focuses clearly on all the character flaws and iconic shenanigans that many of us remember fondly from the original movie. This illustrates the difference excitement makes. In the original trailer, no one cares about the character of Indiana Jones. We don’t know him yet, or why we should care about him. But once the second trailer hits, and the movie is now renamed Indiana Jones and the Raiders of the Lost Ark, it’s all about Dr Jones, his fear of snakes, and those cool scenes that we all remember. This comparison is important, because most of us will be facing what Raiders of the Lost Ark faced: an audience that needs to have something else to latch on to than what you want them to be excited about. An audience that doesn’t know Dr Jones yet and will have to discover him on their own. The same goes for our pitch — you need to treat your audience (the stakeholders) to something that excites them . If you can do that, you’ve won half the battle! Convince the party you are pitching to that a thing is worth making. A value proposition . Also convince them that you are the ones who should make it. Establish your credibility . Cater both messages specifically to the people you are pitching to. The packaging . Financial security: If your project fails miserably, maybe doesn’t even get released, they will usually soak up the loss while you simply move on. This part is rarely said out loud, but it’s a key ask nonetheless. Funding advances : The most obvious ask towards publishers and investors: getting a chunk of change that pays for development. Just make sure to make it realistic and not low- or high-balling your numbers. Say how much you need and why. Commitment: Asking for your team to commit to your project or to key changes. This can sometimes be the hardest pitching you’ll do. Even more so if your team has low morale. Marketing help : Getting help marketing your game. Be specific with this ask, since some partners may only do the minimum if you don’t have a concrete marketing spend that is contractually obligated. Be clear with your ask. It’s not uncommon to match marketing spend with development spend. Technical support: Server architecture, cloud infrastructure, console porting, and other elements of development that are beyond your capabilities as a developer and therefore included in your ask. Cash : Unless you are unable to afford asked rates or you are making a very big ask from a busy partner, you will rarely have to pitch as much if you have cash to spend. But it’s definitely a gain to be considered. If you pay for something upfront, you will rarely have to part with things you’d rather keep. Revenue : There are more ways to share revenue than there are stars in the sky. It may be time-limited or permanent, the percentage may shrink or grow over time, and the share may or may not be taken from one party to compensate another (advance on royalties). If you want to offer revenue share, you should provide a revenue projection based on real data. One that shows how large the earning potential is in multiple scenarios, for example based on number of copies sold. Just be realistic. Equity : Instead of potential future profits you can offer ownership. It can be ownership in your company, or a newly founded company that handles this specific project under mutual conditions with investors. Equity allows someone to have a bigger stake in what you are doing and will of course mean that they get a chunk of future profits also . Just be careful to part with too much equity. Property : You can offer up the intellectual property (IP) you are creating. Your game, its characters and likenesses, assets, etc. Usually including everything related to it, such as potential sequels, merchandise, tie-ins, and more. I’ve been told you shouldn’t accept deals like this today, but it may be on the table and you may not have much authority to say no. Exclusivity : Something that will often be heavily implied anyway, but not always formalised, is exclusivity: that you won’t be launching on more platforms or making more than one game at the same time. This is less relevant today, where platform holders seem less inclined to pay for exclusivity, but depending on who you are talking to, it’s still something worth considering. It can be forever, it can be time-limited, or have other restrictions. But offering exclusivity can be valuable. Delays : explain how you plan to deliver your project on schedule. Almost every game project suffers from some kind of delays (for no good reasons). Sometimes those could’ve been foreseen, planned for, or even mitigated. This is really where your credibility comes in. Convince people why you won’t suffer those delays. Complexity : this is where many systemic designs fail stakeholder scrutiny. They will look or sound complex or complicated, and may imply scale that is not actually required. Inexperience : if there are things in the project that you haven’t done before, or technologies you need to evaluate and research properly, you have to be very transparent about it. If your whole team hasn’t delivered a game before, this is a major risk that you must be able to address. Time constraints : release windows, budget timeframes; there can be multiple reasons why your time is constrained. Perhaps you can’t start fulltime until you get the third programmer onboard, and that won’t happen until six months from now. Bring out a concrete timeline that you can safely commit to. Non-Compliance : the game may become something else than what you agreed on, for creative or financial reasons. Smaller, larger, or styled differently than intended. This is where most creative differences will come from, since many signed deals will be commitments and you’ve just chosen to break them. This is the main reason you’re likely to have milestones and other deliverables along the way, so that any accident about to happen can be course corrected. DOA : the game may be dead on arrival, missing its target audience or simply failing to gain traction against other launches in the same window. In the best of worlds, this doesn’t just kill your studio, but provides at least six months to a year of time where you can do your best to salvage or improve the situation.

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Cassidy Williams 4 weeks ago

Improving my newsletter's open rate the hard(er) way

When it comes to certain projects, I like “doing things that don’t scale.” , particularly with my newsletter . I noticed that my newsletter open rate was down over the past few months to about 40-45%. Not bad, but not as good as it once was. A friend of mine suggested I ask people to respond to the email on occasion to help improve its reputation with Gmail/spam filters. When I did that this past month, my inbox was flooded with responses. I lost count of them if I’m being honest, but there were hundreds of them (possibly over a thousand)! I was very touched to see the responses. Some people just said hi, and some people wrote in detail their thoughts around the issue, some people shared jokes, and some folks were just really nice and complimentary. It really melted my heart to see so many. I responded to a grand majority of them (by hand! No automations here!) and my poor inbox is a disaster. But… it worked! My open rate is now back in the mid-50s! I’m happy with this (probably temporary?) outcome, and will continue to beat the drum that doing this kind of “manual” work is worth it.

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James O'Claire 1 months ago

Receiving Unexpected Positive Signals from the Mobile Ad Tech Community in 2026

I just wanted to write a bit about some of the inbound good vibes I’ve been getting from other industry thought leaders in 2026. I’m not writing this to gloat, but just to take a moment in the new year to enjoy the mobile ad industry recognition that myself and AppGoblin are starting to pickup. In 2025 I started having journalists reach out to collaborate on mobile data projects and research using AppGoblin’s resources. AppGoblin has also started building more features which people in the mobile ad and app user acquisition find genuinely useful. Then this month in January after the latest AppGoblin mobile app SDK report I got an outpouring of direct messages and public posts about the value of AppGoblin’s data as well as the respect people have for me as a person. Especially posts from Warren Woodward of Upptic. Sometimes I have my head down working too hard, so I wanted to take a chance to enjoy some recognition and remind myself the value that being public with recognition of others can be really meaningful. Then this wonderful support from Guido Farji of X3M: This peer proof of my work lead directly to several other companies picking up the latest AppGoblin SDK analysis report and sharing it. I’m just thankful that 2026 seems like it’s starting well and looking forward to all the new mobile ad tech products I’ll build this year.

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Robin Moffatt 1 months ago

Interacting with Developers on Reddit

LLMs are rapidly changing how we use the internet. Remember just a few years ago when you’d search for something on Google and scroll through the results like some kind of Neanderthal? Heck, you might even click through to page 2 if you were feeling spicy. These days— and, knowing how this stuff ages, I should perhaps be less broad than "these days" and say just "in January 2026" —Google’s AI Overview at the top of the results has got pretty good for basic stuff, making looking at the actual search results less necessary. That’s if folk even get to Google, when they’ve got an LLM close at hand to answer any and every question that they throw at it (regardless of whether it’s a lazy " how do you spell irony " or somewhat more LLM-appropriate " ELI5 nuclear fusion "). These factors mean that marketing teams at vendors are seeing their site traffic drop off the proverbial cliff 📉. And if you can’t get folk onto your site to convince them to buy your product, you have to reach them elsewhere. One of those ways is to go to where they are, and for developers that includes Reddit. This has a dual benefit, because not only do you interact with developers in their natural habitat, but you populate the forums (subreddits, known as "subs") that are then scraped and used to train the LLMs—thus hopefully influencing the output of future generations of LLMs with the message you’re trying to take to developers. So what pitfalls await such an effort? Can you actually market to developers on Reddit? ✨Look at me with all the fancy acronyms!✨ Marketing Qualified Leads are what you and I become once we’ve handed over contact details and sent some signal we’re worth tapping up by the sales team. Maybe you got your badge scanned at a conference booth, or put your email address into a form to download an ebook. This kind of marketing is a gazillion miles from what I’m talking about on Reddit. Move along here…no MQLs for you… The next obvious way to reach developers on Reddit is pay for their eyeballs. I’ve seen good ads on Reddit, and plenty of awful ones. What some companies don’t realise is that how you advertise to developers on Reddit is very different from how you advertise to executives in the back of Forbes. Developers can smell a vendor at ten paces, and will scroll away rapidly at the hint of it. Memes yes. On-brand corporate messaging, hell no. I hint at this above, but Reddit is a fairly unique place. Reddit is the best place. Reddit is the worst place. People are horrid, people are mean. People are also warm and welcoming. Reddit is not LinkedIn. Reddit is not just another forum. Reddit is loosely governed, with wildly different attitudes prevailing between "subs". Some are buttoned up and well behaved, whilst others barely manage to pull a pair of pants on in the morning before sitting down at their laptop. This kind of comment , which the child in me spat coffee all over my monitor in reading, is fairly typical: Would you use that language in front of your grandmother? No, of course not, but we’re on Reddit here. If you’re looking at Reddit as a "channel" for your "26-Q1 Awareness campaign", you’ve not read the room. If you’ve read the room and continue with it anyway…well…you deserve every downvote and flame that you will get. Oh, and if you’re the kind of bottom-feeding marketing agency offering Reddit astroturfing as a service, well, you’re the reason we can’t have nice things. Reddit is a real place for real humans to gather and interact, as humans. For a good reason, subs usually have a strong and visceral immune system response to what they will see as spam. Your "organic awareness drive" is their spam. Your "sharing a helpful doc" is their spam. Your "customer success story" is their spam. And on Reddit, you play by their rules. Just the same you would reach developers with any grassroots community interaction. Any good DevRel professional already knows this. It’s instinctive, and it’s DevRel 101. We’re not here to sell, we’re here to educate, and inform. Be genuine. Be helpful. Answer questions that aren’t to do with your product. Be patient. You’re building a relationship, not trying to close a deal. Be thick-skinned. Not everyone will like you, and that’s ok. Don’t be a shill. Oh, you’re " super excited " about this product? Oh really… ? Don’t try to sell. Gross. Don’t drive-by link-drop. Stay for the conversation—and the flames, if the link isn’t welcomed in the sub you’re sharing it with. Don’t even mention your product unless it actually makes sense in the context of the discussion . And even then…don’t mention it every time. And, jfc, for the love of whatever is holy to you…do NOT post AI slop. Where are your users at? That’s the sub you want to be in. Perhaps there are several; be in all of them. Lurk, get a feel for the discussions, decide where you want to interact. If there’s no sub, then perhaps you aren’t looking hard enough. There’s usually a sub for  everything (and I mean… everything 😳). If there really isn’t, then you can start one. Unlike StackOverflow , Reddit is not on the decline so starting a sub can be a good idea if you’re prepared to put the work in to look after it. If you find there’s a larger sub with a significant subset of discussions involving your community getting lost in the noise, maybe that’s an indicator that there might be demand for a dedicated sub. Reddit subs are a bit like areas of a city; you get pristine ones that are tightly controlled and well kept, you get slovenly ones with no active mods and lots of low-effort posts. If you find a sub that’s gone to seed, you can apply to become a mod. Being a mod doesn’t mean you get god powers to shill your company or silence competitors. This is about community, remember? If you can help a sub thrive, you help the community, and a healthy community can only be good for your company too. Be genuine. Be helpful. Answer questions that aren’t to do with your product. Be patient. You’re building a relationship, not trying to close a deal. Be thick-skinned. Not everyone will like you, and that’s ok. Don’t be a shill. Oh, you’re " super excited " about this product? Oh really… ? Don’t try to sell. Gross. Don’t drive-by link-drop. Stay for the conversation—and the flames, if the link isn’t welcomed in the sub you’re sharing it with. Don’t even mention your product unless it actually makes sense in the context of the discussion . And even then…don’t mention it every time. And, jfc, for the love of whatever is holy to you…do NOT post AI slop.

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Stratechery 1 months ago

Ads in ChatGPT, Why OpenAI Needs Ads, The Long Road to Instagram

OpenAI finally announced that ads are coming to ChatGPT. It's an important step, but one with far more risk given the delay — and the delay means the ads aren't yet the right ones.

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James O'Claire 1 months ago

Mobile B2B Trends in 2025 SDK Usage across 50k Apps

At AppGoblin we just crunched the top 50k apps in 2025 and their SDK usage over the year and the report has gained a lot of attention on the socials for mobile B2B marketers, so I wanted to share it on my personal blog as well to give some background for the report. Looking at the trends of for which apps added or removed SDKs gives insight into the trends fueling adtech, revenue services, mobile analytics, MMPs and more. In 2025 there were some clear winners and losers, so let’s look into it more. Some of the highlights: Moloco saw massive growth in their SDK clients X3M has been growing for a couple years but 2025 looks to have been a breakout year for them. FlareLane ‘s push notification SDK has a small base of apps but it’s growing rapidly. Superwall paywall SDK is gaining in popularity among big and small apps Airbridge saw a great boost in growth. Their MMP offering is growing rapidly. PostHog and Parsely saw great growth. These more business / developer focused analytics platforms are growing rapidly. Flurry saw big drops in their SDK usage. Some drops in usage for ad networks like LiftOff/AdColony/Mopub. Don’t be fooled, though Liftoff Mobile saw shrinking trends, it’s partnership/parent Vungle saw a healthy increase. This isn’t necessarily an issue as their older app clients are absorbed into Vungle. A similar situation can be observed for AdColony (Digital Turbine) and MoPub (AppLovin). The whole report & CSV is free on AppGoblin: https://appgoblin.info/reports/mobile-apps-growth-sdks-2025

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daniel.haxx.se 1 months ago

6,000 curl stickers

I am heading to FOSDEM again at the end of January. I go there every year and I have learned that there is a really sticker-happy audience there. The last few times I have been there, I have given away several thousands of curl stickers. As I realized I did not actually have a few thousand stickers left, I had to restock. I consider stickers a fun and somewhat easy way to market the curl project. It helps us getting known and seen out there in the world. The stickers are paid for by curl donations . Thanks to all of you who have donated! This time I ordered the stickers from stickerapp.se . They have a rather fancy web UI editor and tools to make sure the stickers become exactly the way I want them. I believe the total order price was actually slightly cheaper than the previous provider I used. I ordered five classic curl sticker designs and I introduced a new one. Here is the full set: Six different curl stickers Die cut curl logo 7.5cm x 2.8cm – the classic “small” curl logo sticker. (bottom left in the photo) Die cut curl logo 10cm x 3.7cm – the slightly larger curl logo sticker. (top row in the photo) Rounded rectangle 7.5cm x 4.1cm – yes we curl , the curl symbol and my face (mid left in the photo) Oval 7.5cm x 4cm – with the curl logo (bottom right in the photo) Round 2.5cm x 2.5 cm – small curl symbol. (in the middle of the photo). My favorite. Perfect for the backside of a phone. Fits perfectly in the logo on the lid of a Frame Work laptop. Round 4cm x 4cm – curl symbol in a slightly larger round version. The new sticker variant in the set. (on the right side in the middle row in the photo) The quality and feel of the products are next to identical to previous sticker orders. They look great! I got 1,000 copies of each variant this time. The official curl logo, the curl symbol, the colors and everything related is freely available and anyone is welcome to print their own stickers at will: https://curl.se/logo/ I bring curl stickers to all events I go to. Ask me! There is no way to buy stickers from me or from the curl project. I encourage you to look me up and ask for one or a few. At FOSDEM I try to make sure the wolfSSL stand has plenty to hand out, since it is a fixed geographical point that might be easier to find than me.

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iDiallo 1 months ago

Is Blogging Dead?

When I started 2025, I set myself a simple challenge: write consistently and see if I could reclaim some of the audience this blog once had. In 2024, I had published just 4 posts and had only a handful of RSS subscribers. It felt like shouting into the void. By the end of 2025, I had published 177 articles and 24 "byte-sized" pieces, those shower thoughts I write and release without extensive research. The blog received 9,158,823 views from all sources, bots and humans alike. The spikes represent when an article goes viral. I've created a visualisation for when an article spiked in February . Five articles stood out this year: They were all prominently featured on hackernews and reddit. The leadership one appearing on Google Discovery, which I didn't know was a thing. Some of my "byte-sized" rants also made a lot of noise: Microsoft should take note. I initially published every other day at 7am UTC. It was consistent, but I noticed a pattern: people were sharing my links on Reddit and Hacker News around that time. right when traffic was lowest. My posts were getting buried. So I adjusted. I gradually shifted my publication time to 12pm UTC, giving my articles a better shot at visibility during peak hours. It's a small tactical change, but it made a difference. RSS doesn't give me precise reader counts, and that's intentional. I publish full articles in my feed, not snippets, because I want readers to own their reading experience. The growth here tells its own story. At the start of the year, I received 889 daily pings from around 56 RSS bots and 149 unique IP addresses. By year's end, that climbed to 4,711 daily pings from roughly 131 bots and 563 unique IPs. Many of these bots are self-hosted readers like Tiny Tiny RSS, living on personal devices and pinging sporadically. IP addresses change constantly, making it impossible to track individual users, which is exactly how it should be. The most popular reader among my audience is Feeder (appearing in my logs as "SpaceCowboys Android RSS reader"). It's open source , ad-free, and collects no user data. Feedly also showed up consistently, pinging from 3 unique IP addresses. I do want to point out that there is no consistent way of identifying an RSS reader. The user agents vary widely. You can read more about my attempt to classify all my RSS readers here . While my RSS readership grew steadily, my Google traffic nosedived. I've written before about AI Overviews eating through blog traffic, and I watched it happen in real time. Search impressions increased steadily with my publishing schedule, until September, when everything flattened. Then I discovered another problem: I had become a spam vector . Once I fixed that in October, traffic started recovering. I experimented with AI to improve my writing throughout the year, and I have mixed feelings worth a dedicated post. Here's the short version: AI is an impressive time-saver. You can accomplish a lot with it quickly. But the problem comes up when you realize everything written with AI assistance sounds the same. No matter how much you tweak the prompts, there's a sameness to the voice, a flatness that strips away individuality. It's not just your own writing, but that of every website. My conclusion: AI isn't a good tool if you're trying to develop a unique voice. It strips away individuality. And that unique voice is what you need to stand out today. If you want people to bypass an AI summary and actually read your blog, your voice has to be compelling and distinctly human. I did find some uses that boosted my productivity without robbing me of the creative process. More on that in a future post. Yet another podcast... I know. But my goal was simple: provide an easier way to consume my blog content and allow for more free-flowing discussion around subjects I care about. For now, it's just me rambling and finding my footing. I've recorded 70 episodes on Spotify and syndicated them to Apple Podcast and Amazon Music . Soon I'll make it available directly on the blog so you don't have to sign up for yet another service. Going from zero to one was already a milestone. I'm grateful to everyone who has subscribed, and especially to those who listen without subscribing. Your time means everything. The most important part of this entire journey has been the emails from casual readers. The internet is full of trolls, but every single email I received this year was both encouraging and filled with practical feedback. Many readers quoted my work on their own blogs, offering honest takes that pushed my thinking further. This is what makes it worthwhile, real conversations with real people. I hope we can keep this going. In 2025, I built the habit of showing up consistently and producing work I'm proud of. In 2026, my goal is to steer this ship toward something truly meaningful. If you've been part of this journey, thank you. And if you're just finding this blog now, welcome. Let's see where this goes together. I use Zip Bombs to Protect my Server (April 17th) Do not download the app, use the website (July 2nd) How to Lead in a Room Full of Experts (September 24th) Why Companies Don't Fix Bugs (April 7th) Users Only Care About 20% of Your Application (September 26th) No I don't want to turn on Windows Backup with One Drive (September 11th) I can't upgrade to Windows 11, now leave me alone (December 21st)

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Circus Scientist 2 months ago

Google is dead. Where do we go now?

It’s anecdotal, I know, but my main entertainment business revenue is down 50% over the past 3 months. Our main paid source of leads was Google Ads, which have served us well over the past 10 years or so – I think I know what I am doing in adwords by now. Once per month I check the analytics, updating keywords and tweaking ad campaigns. Over the past year we increased our budget, and then I started looking at it once per week, running simultaneous campaigns with different settings, just trying to get SOMETHING. Last month Google gave us a bonus – free money! This was 5x our monthly ad spend, to spend just when we needed it most – over the December holidays. I added another new campaign, updated the budgets for the existing ones. Still no change. The last week there was money to burn, left over from unused ad spend. I increased our budget to 10x. ZERO RETURN. The money ran out. I am not putting more in. Where do we go from here? Research shows that many young people are getting their information from short video platforms like TikTok and Instagram. We are trying ads on there. Our customer base is comprised of 50% returning customers (I am proud of that statistic!). We have an email newsletter, we started sending them regularly over the past 2 months. Remember us? We also plan to do some actual physical advertising – I am going to a market next weekend, doing a free show or two, handing out cards. Also, we are branching out – I have some projects I want to make, related to the Magic Poi project , and hopefully sell. We ordered supplies last week. Right now, though – I’m broke. Anyone need a website or IOT project built ? I am AI assisted , very fast! Update: this post went viral on Hacker News! I went with Instagram ads because we have the most followers on there and got 4 new bookings in 48 hours! The post Google is dead. Where do we go now? appeared first on Circus Scientist .

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Wreflection 2 months ago

Wrapped Envy Season

Every year, sometime in late November, tech CEOs and VPs of Product watch Spotify Wrapped go viral and send their product teams a request: “We should do this.” You can see the appeal. In 2025, Spotify said 200 million users (+19% year-over-year) shared Wrapped over 500 million times (+41% year-over-year) within 24 hours 1 . Naturally, the copycats follow. YouTube Recap, Strava Year in Sport, Duolingo Year in Review, Granola Crunched, Grammarly Writing Wrapped, Apple Music, Amazon Music, LinkedIn, Uber, Tiktok, Google Search, Twitch, Discord, Reddit, the list goes on. But why does Spotify’s version generate significant anticipation and engagement, while the others struggle to gain traction? For comparison, YouTube has nearly 4x the number of users (YouTube 2.7B 2 , Spotify 700M 3 ) yet Spotify Wrapped generated ~10x more interest. Product Or Campaign? Adam Fishman, who writes the newsletter FishmanAF, spoke with former Spotify’s Head of Growth Marketing Patrick Moran about what separates Spotify from the rest 4 . “To do well, this takes months to plan out because it is just as much work for product and engineering as it is for marketing.” “In reality the Wrapped campaign is really seen as a “product” at Spotify and gets way more resources, support, budget, etc. than a one-off campaign would.” If you want results like Spotify, you need to invest in it like Spotify does. Treating your year-end recap as a holiday marketing campaign will not produce the same outcome. Adam’s piece includes five questions product leaders and CEOs should evaluate before committing to a year-recap feature. Building on those, I recommend three overarching questions. What do you hope to accomplish with this feature is probably the most important question. The goal could be brand awareness, or customer acquisition and retention. It could be feature discovery to remind users about underutilized capabilities like Spotify’s playlists or podcasts. Or you might want to reinforce the value or ROI your product generates, as Cursor does by showing users how many lines of code they generated. Sometimes, the goal could simply be fun and vibes, which creates goodwill in harder-to-measure ways. Each goal leads to different design choices and strategies. For example, NYT Games makes their year-end recap accessible to free users, but shows ads since the high engagement makes the impressions valuable. Others like Strava locks theirs behind the subscription paywall as a customer acquisition play. Some products generate data users genuinely want to reflect on. Good candidates include music listening, fitness achievements, learning streaks. These activities showcase effort, taste, and identity. Bad candidates include job applications submitted, fast food orders, or hours spent scrolling. These activities carry shame or anxiety. Dating apps would not want to remind users of how many failed matches they accumulated or food delivery apps would not want to remind users they ordered from McDonald’s 300 times last year. In fact, Saturday Night Live lampooned exactly this dynamic in a hilarious sketch . Products serving multiple user types must also segment their recaps. Spotify wisely gives artists different data than listeners while it seems like LinkedIn’s 2025 Year-In-Review did not differentiate between creators, recruiters, and regular users. Spotify’s Wrapped succeeds in part because it creates social capital. Being in the “top 1% of Swifties” gives users something to brag about and bond over belonging to the tribe. Compare that to LinkedIn’s Year in Review, which tells you that you used “Applicant Insights” frequently. As one user in Lenny Rachitsky’s Slack community 5 put it: “ I actually have no idea what the applicant insights feature is that apparently I used or the connection between views and searches and premium. ” Just because a feature name is well known inside your company does not mean it has similar recognition in customers’ minds. If users don’t even understand it, they won’t get any social validation from broadcasting it. LinkedIn Year In Review 2025 Unintended Consequences Some products have more surface area for pitfalls than others. Personalized data that works for some users can become problematic for others. For example, a fitness app highlighting workout streaks works great until a user goes through a difficult period, such as illness, depression, or major life changes, and the data reminds them of a decline they would prefer to forget. A year-end recap that highlights low usage creates the same problem, effectively calling out customers for not exercising enough. Some pitfalls cannot be predicted in advance. When they surface, teams need to monitor social channels and respond quickly. As , a former Facebook executive, noted 6 : For products with high risk of surfacing unwelcome personal data, pivoting to aggregate information provides a safer alternative. Google , Netflix and TikTok year-end recaps lean toward showing users what was popular across the platform rather than potentially embarrassing personal statistics. Does year-recap make sense for B2B or work-related products? Generally, no. Most people would not want to know they spent 4,000 hours in Jira, especially if it reminds them they did so because Jira’s errors forced endless troubleshooting. Yet Granola, an AI meetings tool, received notably positive reception for its “ Crunched ” year-end feature despite being work-related. In the same Lenny’s Slack community discussion from earlier, users reacted to Granola’s ‘Crunched’ feature positively, a stark contrast to their reaction to LinkedIn’s recap. “ Just in the Lenny community we have so many people talking positively about Granola. In a crowded AI meetings tools market, that’s massive. ” versus “ The LinkedIn one was awful. Graphics were bad, wasn’t fun, wasn’t useful. ” The difference may be that Granola focused on entertaining AI-generated summaries with simple/minimal raw statistics. Some products that seem like natural fits for a year-end recap feature are yet to ship one. Kindle and Goodreads are the most obvious candidates to me. Amazon owns both properties and has rich data about reading habits. Yet users have had to resort to creating their own year-end Kindle and Goodreads recaps because the official product does not exist. This seems like a missed opportunity because reading, like music listening, reflects identity and taste. LinkedIn’s daily games have built an engaged audience, but the 2025 LinkedIn Year-In-Review omitted gaming statistics entirely. For players, like me, who solve Queens and Tango daily, games data would have provided more shareable content because competitive streaks and leaderboards already drive engagement 7 . The year-in-review format has a long history. News Publications pioneered it with their annual “ Year In Review ” issues, recapping the stories and events that shaped the previous twelve months. In tech, it was actually Facebook, not Spotify, which launched the first personalized Year in Review in 2014 . Spotify followed two years later. Facebook eventually killed its feature after bad press over traumatic memories 8 . Spotify, on the other hand, went from strength to strength. After moving from email recaps to in-app experiences and rebranding as Wrapped in 2019 9 , the feature became a cultural phenomenon. Spotify now owns the word “Wrapped” and sets the standard in the consumer mind. The association is so strong that users describe every recap as “Wrapped” regardless of which company ships it or what the company names their feature. Every competitor pays a copycat tax unless they do something genuinely different. 2026, in my view, will likely be the year we will see truly spectacular AI-native wrapped experiences. Granola showed how AI can be used to generate witty summaries of users’ meeting patterns. In the next evolution, one could imagine your favorite artist calling you by name, or previewing a personalized song they’ve created just for you with your name worked into the lyrics. Memory from AI products could draw magical insights about you that other apps likely cannot. Your Year With ChatGPT is an early glimpse of this. These would be orthogonal to what Spotify does. For the others, late November will continue to bring the same annual ritual. Somewhere, a tech CEO or VP of Product will watch Spotify Wrapped go viral yet again and send their product teams a request. “We should do this.” If you enjoyed this post, please consider sharing it on your socials or with someone who might also find it interesting. You can follow me on Twitter/X or LinkedIn for more frequent business and tech discussions. Thanks for reading Wreflection! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. Strava: Year in Sport 2025 personalized (and aggregate ). Source Granola.ai: Crunched 2025 Google Photos: 2025 Recap Google: Year in Search 2025 ChatGPT: Your Year With ChatGPT Duolingo: 2025 Year in Review Uber: YOUBER 2025 Cursor: Your Year in Code NYT: Year in Games Amazon Music: 2025 Delivered Apple Music: Replay 2025 (separate review for Artists ) LinkedIn: Year in Review 2025 Discord: Checkpoint 2025 1 Spotify Wrapped Press Release , 2025. YouTube at 20 , Forbes, 2025. And YouTube Official Blog , 2025. Spotify Q3 Earnings Report , 2025. No you shouldn’t do a Spotify Wrapped campaign , Adam Fishman, 2022. The ROI of Wrapped , Lenny’s Community Wisdom 165, 2025. Deb Liu , Threads, 2025. “ More than a year after launching LinkedIn Games, engagement remains strong: 86% of people who play return the next day, and 82% are still playing a week later, ” LinkedIn’s press release , 2025. Facebook Apologizes for Pain Caused by ‘Year in Review’ Posts , Time Magazine, 2014. In 2020, former Spotify intern Jewel Ham claimed to have developed the Spotify Wrapped stories format during her internship. Spotify has repeatedly denied this claim citing internal reviews.

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Manuel Moreale 3 months ago

Double opt-in PSA

As of today, I run three different newsletters, all powered by Buttondown: there’s my recently announced Dealgorithmed , my outdoors-focused From the Summit , and the People and Blogs series. I also send my blog posts via email , if you prefer to consume content that way. They all require double opt-in. Which means that if you signed up for one of them, you should have received a second email, asking you to click a link to confirm your subscription. Sometimes those land in the spam folder, sometimes they don’t arrive at all. That’s just the unfortunate reality of emails in 2025. I just checked, and a solid 10% of the people who have signed up for Dealgorithmed have not confirmed their address. This is a reminder to check your inbox and click the confirmation link otherwise, you will not receive the first edition when it goes out on January 1st. Thank you for keeping RSS alive. You're awesome. Email me :: Sign my guestbook :: Support for 1$/month :: See my generous supporters :: Subscribe to People and Blogs

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Alex White's Blog 3 months ago

RE: Fake Online Reviews

Niq with Q writes about fake online reviews and how the practice of bribing people for reviews has destroyed the trust factor on review platforms. Read their excellent post here: https://niqwithq.com/ . In a previous role I worked as a product designer for a now exctinct/acquired digital marketting company. Nothing destroyed my trust in online review platforms like that job. Everything was about pumping up review numbers, content stuffing websites and flooding the internet with targetted ads. Nothing was genuine, and it all served to erode the trust you usually place in small, local businesses. After that role, I now specifically look for contractors that have 0 online precense. If they have a website and tons of reviews, they are probably spending a ton on marketting (trust me, that stuff isn't cheap), which means they pass those costs onto the customer. Even worse if they drive branded company vehicles, that's a sure way to know they are charging 2-3 times more than the actual small guys. This lends itself to one of the most stressful parts of being a homeowner, finding honest/affordable/reliable contractors. It's near impossible to find somebody that'll lift a finger for under $1,000 USD. Thankfully we now have a network of contractors we trust, all from word of mouth. Not a single one of them has a website or Google reviews.

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Stratechery 3 months ago

An Interview with Eric Seufert About Advertising and AI

An interview with Eric Seufert about the right advertising model for AI, the right AI for Meta, and why personalized advertising is good for society.

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Manuel Moreale 4 months ago

A newsletter-related PSA

Quick PSA for those of you out there who are interested in subscribing to either my From the Summit 2.0 , the newsletter version of People and Blogs , or simply prefer to get these blog posts delivered via email : all those newsletters require double opt-in. What that means is that once you have signed up, you should get a second email asking you to click a link to confirm your email address. Sometimes those emails land in the spam folder for reasons unknown to me. Maybe I don’t pray the SMTP gods with enough conviction, who knows. What I do know is that I see a lot of people signing up and then not confirming their addresses. So, if you did sign up but did not receive the confirmation email, ping me either via email or Apple Messages, using [email protected], and I’ll look into that. Thank you for keeping RSS alive. You're awesome. Email me :: Sign my guestbook :: Support for 1$/month :: See my generous supporters :: Subscribe to People and Blogs

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Herman's blog 4 months ago

PIRACYKILLS

Most people who read my blog and know me for the development of Bear Blog are surprised to learn that I have another software project in the art and design space. It's called JustSketchMe and is a 3D modelling tool for artists to conceptualise their artwork before putting pencil to paper. It's a very niche tool (and requires some serious explanation to some non-illustrators involving a wooden mannequin and me doing some dramatic poses), however when provided as a freemium tool to the global population of artists, it's quite well used. Similar to Bear, I make it free to everyone, with the development being funded through a "pro" tier. Conversely, since it is a standalone app it has a bit of a weakness, which is what this post is about. I noticed, back in 2021, that when Googling "justsketchme" the top 3 autocompletes were "justsketchme crack", "justsketchme pro cracked", and "justsketchme apk". On writing this post, I checked that this still holds true, and it's fairly similar 4 years later. The meaning of this is obvious. A lot of people are trying to pirate JustSketchMe. However, instead of feeling frustrated (okay, I did feel a bit frustrated at first) I had a bright idea to turn this apparent negative into a positive. I created two pages with the following titles and the appropriate subtitles to get indexed as a pirate-able version of JustSketchMe: These pages rank as the first result on Google for the relevant search terms. Then on the page itself I tongue-in-cheek call out the potential pirate. I then acknowledge that we're in financially trying times and give them a discount code. And you know what? That discount code is the most used discount code on JustSketchMe! By far! No YouTube sponsor, nor Black Friday special even comes close. In some ways this is taking advantage of a good search term. In others it's showing empathy and adding delight, creating a positive incentive to purchase to someone who otherwise wouldn't have. The discount code is PIRACYKILLS . I'll leave it active for a while. 👮🏻‍♂️ JustSketchMe Crack Full 2021 22.0.1.73 JustSketchMe APK Mirror FULL 2.2.2021

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ryansouthgate.com 5 months ago

Goodbye Disqus - Your injected ads are horrible

IntroThis will be a short and sweet post. I’m not big on goodbyes. Disqus started showing ads for their “free” tier comments system a few years back. At the time, the communication they sent out via email, seemed quite laid-back and had the tone of “don’t worry about it, it’s not a big thing”. Which in part lead me to almost forget it happened. At the time, the disqus comments system looked quite smart and sleek.

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Robert Greiner 5 months ago

The Age of Citation

Watch someone use ChatGPT to research. They type, wait, skim, and act. No scrolling endless search results. Just a verdict, a decision, and a click. That behavior is why Answer Engine Optimization (AEO) exists - the craft of showing up in the synthesis, not ranked on a page. Google trained us to climb to number one on a page of blue links. Now the “page” is a paragraph stitched from everywhere. The engine isn’t choosing a winner; it’s cross-checking a chorus. In that world, the most-mentioned brand beats the top-ranked page. Visibility shifts from a trophy on one site to a probability across many surfaces. You can see the new values whenever an answer engine shows its cards. Perplexity, by design, cites multiple sources and synthesizes across the web. OpenAI’s SearchGPT puts sources inside answers, optimizing for corroboration instead of a lone authority . If you appear in five distinct citations across different websites, videos, and docs, you get pulled into the story. We miss this because the old game felt clean. One Search Engine Result Page (SERP). One keyword. One winner. But the retrieval stack changed. These models are pattern matchers with trust issues. They don’t want a single page screaming authority; they want independent witnesses who agree. “Most-mentioned” isn’t about volume for its own sake. It’s breadth of corroboration. Mention velocity over rank. This is why a two-paragraph Reddit comment can move more revenue than a 10,000-word pillar page with great SEO. Not because brevity is magic, but because Reddit is where the conversation is happening - and the engines are wired to listen. Reddit inked data deals to feed real-time content into assistants, including a partnership with OpenAI . The model prioritizes living dialogue. A short, honest answer in a thread about “Which espresso machine under $500 can I use without waking up my family in the morning?” can reverberate across the internet, showing up in AI-powered search windows as a trusted recommendation. That’s not supposed to beat domain authority. Yet it does. Here’s the uncomfortable part: this shift collapses the moat incumbents thought they had. A brand-new startup mentioned by actual users in a few credible places can show up in answers next week. The old gatekeeper - investing in years of link building - lost leverage when the interface began preferring fresh corroboration. I’ve watched unknown names slip into AI summaries overnight because they were present where models cross-check: a YouTube explainer, a help page that reads like a real fix, a handful of community threads. The bar moved from “accumulate PageRank” to “earn believable mentions.” That’s a different company muscle. It also flips where the highest-ROI content lives. Ask an LLM a long, messy question and listen to it breathe: “How do I connect Product X to Workflow Y under constraint Z for a team with policy Q?” That’s not a keyword... it’s a paragraph. Your help center is a gold mine because it answers the exact multi-clause questions assistants get. People arrive with intent; assistants surface pages that look like fixes, not funnels. There’s a trap here, and teams are already falling into it. If synthesis is the currency, why not flood the web with AI-generated pages and force your way into the chorus? Because the models are learning to ignore their own echoes. Train on synthetic output long enough and you get model collapse: the system drifts toward its own errors and forgets rare, true signals . Platforms don’t want that. Retrieval pipelines are getting more sensitive to provenance, originality, and human fingerprints. The AI mirror maze looks productive until you notice most of what you’re producing never gets cited - and worse, it makes the real you harder to trust. None of this means SEO is dead. It’s upstream of the answer now. Your site feeds the synthesizer, not the other way around. Your best work will be cited, paraphrased, and delivered without a click. That’s scary if your model is “capture the session.” It’s liberating if your model is “win the decision.” If the assistant makes the choice and you’re in the synthesis, you win. The internet spent two decades teaching us to chase rank. The next decade rewards citation share. The playbook is simpler than it sounds: be the most-cited truth about the problem you exist to solve. Earn mentions that look like reality. Put your expertise where the model listens. Avoid the mirror maze. In answer-first interfaces, the spotlight doesn’t land on a single podium. It sweeps the room until the story feels true. Be in that story, or be invisible.

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Gabriel Weinberg 5 months ago

On reddit, roughly 500 views = 1 click

A couple weeks ago I wrote a post titled AI survelliance should be banned while there is still time . Someone submitted it to Hacker News where it got over 600 upvotes , so I decided to submit it myself to reddit (on /r/technology) where it got over 1,100 upvotes . Because I submitted it, I was able to get “Post Insights” (pictured above, left) that indicated the post got 175,000 views. Similarly, substack reports “Traffic sources” (pictured above, right) and shows 310 views came from reddit. This roughly 1:500 ratio is consistent with others I’ve gathered across several different posts and subreddits, so I don’t think it is particularly anomalous. Reddit views count impressions (when posts appear in feeds), making this ratio also comparable to other platforms. The bottom line is lots of views on social doesn’t equate to lots of clicks, and certainly not lots of email subscribers, which experiences another 1:100 type of ratio, that is, clicks to email subscribers. My takeaways: Social ≠ list growth. Social posts don't build email lists: social post views to new email subscribers is likely less than 50,000 to 1 (500 x 100). Optimize the headline. If you do chase social views, nail the headline since that's where 99% of the value lives given almost nobody clicks through. For example, you could expose your brand name or logo, or just raise awareness for a crisp point or concept you can fit in a headline. 0.2% is common for ads; I expected higher for a top organic post on a popular subreddit, but this data suggests otherwise. Of course, your mileage may vary, but I thought it would nevertheless be helpful to put out a real data point I found interesting. Thanks for reading! Subscribe for free to receive new posts or get the audio version . A couple weeks ago I wrote a post titled AI survelliance should be banned while there is still time . Someone submitted it to Hacker News where it got over 600 upvotes , so I decided to submit it myself to reddit (on /r/technology) where it got over 1,100 upvotes . Because I submitted it, I was able to get “Post Insights” (pictured above, left) that indicated the post got 175,000 views. Similarly, substack reports “Traffic sources” (pictured above, right) and shows 310 views came from reddit. This roughly 1:500 ratio is consistent with others I’ve gathered across several different posts and subreddits, so I don’t think it is particularly anomalous. Reddit views count impressions (when posts appear in feeds), making this ratio also comparable to other platforms. The bottom line is lots of views on social doesn’t equate to lots of clicks, and certainly not lots of email subscribers, which experiences another 1:100 type of ratio, that is, clicks to email subscribers. My takeaways: Social ≠ list growth. Social posts don't build email lists: social post views to new email subscribers is likely less than 50,000 to 1 (500 x 100). Optimize the headline. If you do chase social views, nail the headline since that's where 99% of the value lives given almost nobody clicks through. For example, you could expose your brand name or logo, or just raise awareness for a crisp point or concept you can fit in a headline.

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Robert Greiner 5 months ago

Win the Default, Win the Decade

The most expensive real estate in the world isn’t oceanfront - it’s the default button. Google reportedly paid Apple $18–$20 billion to be the default search on Safari - not the best search, the one that shows up without a thought. That price isn’t about features. It’s about gravity: the path everything takes when no one is pushing. This matters because most teams still try to win by arguing, branding, or persuading. Meanwhile, the winners are quietly grading the slope so the flow moves their way. Control the slope and you don’t have to shout; you just have to be there when the decision makes itself. We’ve seen this before. A tiny policy tweak that changes nothing but the starting point can change everything about the outcome. Automatic enrollment boosts 401(k) participation by entire workforces - not by inspiring them with retirement sermons, but by making saving the path of least resistance. When countries switch organ donation to opt-out instead of opt-in, consent rates leap to above 90%. When Apple turned off third-party tracking by default, ad platforms didn’t adjust their pitches; they bled. Different domains, same pattern: defaults quietly bend behavior. We keep treating the world like a debate club. It’s closer to a river. Rivers don’t negotiate with rocks; they follow the smallest gradient and start carving. The Grand Canyon didn’t appear because the Colorado River was persuasive. Water followed the easiest route, and the route compounded itself: flow deepened the channel, a deeper channel increased speed, and speed accelerated erosion. The flow creates the canyon that then dictates the flow. Products, policies, and markets work the same way. The riverbed is the default. The flow is human behavior. Every click you remove, every field you pre-fill, every setting you make the starting point is a millimeter off the riverbank - but across years, it’s a canyon. Here’s the important nuance: the riverbed doesn’t need to be perfect; it only needs to be preferred. Users are satisficers. They don’t climb hills for tiny gains; they follow the slope that’s already downhill. A merely OK experience on a well-graded slope beats a great experience you have to hike to. This is why the AI wars won’t be won by the smartest model. They’ll be won by whoever becomes the default layer between you and everything else - and can actually deliver. Microsoft Copilot looks like it should have already won. It’s embedded in Office, connected to your SharePoint, reading your emails, summarizing your Teams meetings. It’s the perfect default—pre-installed, pre-integrated, pre-authorized. The riverbed couldn’t be better graded. But defaults only work if the water actually flows. Copilot shows how even unmatched distribution can backfire if the product misses the minimum bar of usefulness. If every summary misses the point, if every SharePoint search returns nonsense, if the AI can’t actually help with the work… people will climb out of the canyon. They’ll copy-paste into ChatGPT. They’ll try Claude. They’ll find their own rivers. That’s the paradox: the default position is priceless, but only if it’s good enough to keep people in the channel. Google Search wasn’t perfect; it was just good enough that climbing out felt pointless. Copilot risks teaching millions of enterprise users the opposite lesson: that the default can be worse than nothing. Microsoft owns the most valuable real estate in enterprise AI: every Office toolbar, every Teams window—but they’re fumbling the handoff. The channel is perfect, but the water won’t flow. Which means the throne is still empty. The next trillion-dollar company won’t just become the AI default - they’ll be the first one good enough to keep it. The riverbed is ready. We’re just waiting for water worth flowing.

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A Smart Bear 5 months ago

Your target market isn't demographic

How to define your actual target market, which probably isn't traditional demographics and firmographics.

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